Abstract

This research examines coastal erosion along the Arctic shoreline at Tiksi in the Lena River Delta under significant impacts of a warming climate. Climate warming, characterized by elevated surface temperatures, has accelerated the melting of ground ice and exacerbated coastal erosion. Despite extensive studies on Arctic coastal dynamics, considerable gaps remain in understanding local erosion patterns and in models predicting their long-term trends.

Utilizing the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), this study analyzes historical erosion rates and forecasts future changes by employing Landsat satellite imagery from 1973 to 2023 and climate warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show a clear acceleration of coastal erosion at Tiksi over the past decade, reaching an average rate of 0.65 m/year, despite a notable regional decline in storm frequency and intensity.

Significant differences were observed among shoreline types: erosion rates of lagoon barriers and rocky coasts steadily increased over the past 50 years, whereas artificial shorelines expanded initially due to infrastructure construction, then stabilized. A strong correlation (r = 0.994) between rising mean annual ground surface temperature and accelerated erosion highlights substantial impacts from regional warming and prolonged ice-free seasons.

Future projections based on CMIP6 scenarios indicate continued acceleration of erosion, posing significant threats to critical infrastructure, including Tiksi Airport and seaport facilities, by mid-century. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive management measures, such as beach nourishment and rock revetments, to protect infrastructure and enhance regional resilience to coastal erosion.

Sun, J., Zhang, Z., Yan, Q. et al. Climate Warming and Arctic Coastline Erosion at Tiksi, Laptev Sea, Yakutia, Russia: A Study on Shoreline Changes and Future Projections.Estuaries and Coasts 48, 164 (2025) https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-025-01601-5