Scientists at the Russian Academy of Sciences have developed mathematical models to predict flooding effects and assist with an action plan.

To develop and test their models, they used flooding data from flooding in Primorye in 2001.

They included the flooding area, water level, temperature and velocity. They also included human and animal populations in the flooding area, and flood damage to production assets. Mathematical models used to predict flooding use nonlinear differential equations.

They created a causal diagram and developed the equations to support the model. They compared it to actual data from Primorye, checking for reliability. The computing information system they created was based on their model – FCFAAD. The results can now be used in future flood planning and assisting with prevention.

Khamutova MV, Kushnikov VA, Dranko OI, (2022)
A mathematical model for choosing an action plan for the prevention and elimination of flood effects, 55:3 IFAC-PapersOnLine, available at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2022.05.020