Mironov, Klyachkin and Yulin from Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, have suggested new computer-based method of long-term ice forecasting for the Arctic Seas. These methods are currently tested by an experimental hardware-software complex called “Ice”.

The year-round ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is one of the main features of the Arctic climate system, and the prediction of changes in ice extent is a key to successful climate trend assessment. Also, due to economic drivers such as anticipated year-round trading along the North Sea Route, the ice cover forecasting seems to be of increasing importance.

The long-range forecasts are actively used for the strategic and tactic planning of maritime operations in the Arctic. To improve these forecasts, scientists suggested that the long-term methods should be based on two approaches.

The first one is based on the physical nature of changes in ice coverage and considers the cyclicity of natural processes. The second one relies on computer technologies that use automated workplaces or hardware-software complexes  for forecast creation.

The developed experimental complex “Ice” allows satellite monitoring of ice cover and automated forecasting of ice conditions. The results from ‘Ice’ complex so far show promise and  further use will improve the forecasts and its visualisations.

Original source: Mironov, E. U., Klyachkin, S. V., & Yulin, A. V. (2019). New Methods and Technologies of Ice Forecasts for the Arctic Seas. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 44(4), 231-237

Link to source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1068373919040022

Front photo credits to Paul Nicklen, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC