Abstract:
Relevance. Long-term energy demand projection has been for years an essential task facing researchers. The complexity involved in making such projection is due to the ever-growing uncertainty and variability of the factors and trends shaping this demand. The present study is a relevant contribution to the literature because it addresses Russia transition to a low-carbon development model and decarbonization of energy-intensive industries that seeks to improve the resource and energy efficiency of industrial production and reduce the carbon footprint. Aim. To investigate the projected dynamics and makeup of fuel and energy demand subject various factors such as adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technology, reduction of material intensity, transition to alternative energy sources, electrification of industrial processes, and improvements in energy efficiency. 

Methods. The methodological approach is based on the principles of systems analysis, simulation modeling, and cross-sectoral modeling. We propose to use an original system of models tailored to the above problem so as to make the required projections. 

Results and discussion. The study reports our analysis of the long-term trends in the adoption of new technology in energy-intensive industries. We contribute a projection of demand for energy by the industrial sector and the economy as a whole. The projection assumes the ongoing low-carbon energy transition and its time frame covers the period to 2050. The projection takes into account: 1) changes in the makeup of energy consumption with a decrease in the share of energy-intensive industries of the primary sector and a growth of the share of high-tech industries, 2) increased use of secondary wastes (metal, paper, cardboard, glass, etc.), 3) transition to the best available technology, 4) replacement of currently used energy carriers and raw materials by zero-carbon and low-carbon alternatives, 5) two-fold reduction in CO₂ emissions. We outline the future dynamics of energy intensity reduction as compared to that of the leading countries of the world. The energy intensity of the Russian economy is expected to decrease by 1.5 times by 2050 as a result of the adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technology contributing to decarbonization of the economy.

Mazurova, O.V. (2026). Role of low-carbon technologies in lowering industrial energy intensity: methodological approach and projection. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University Geo Assets Engineering, [online] 337(1), pp.228–244. doi:https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/1/4991.

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