Bioclimatic Zoning of Russia Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Present and Future Climates

Based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), an assessment of bioclimatic conditions in Russia at the beginning and middle of the 21st century has been conducted. Winter and summer features of the UTCI are examined under the present (2000–2022) and future climates (2040–2059) for two scenarios: a “mild” scenario (SSP1-2.6) and a “severe” scenario (SSP5-8.5).

The calculation of daily mean UTCI across Russia is performed using the BioKlima 2.6 software package. Daily data from three models participating in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) are used for the calculations: the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences; the UK Met Office Hadley Centre; and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

It is shown that, under both current and future climates, cold stress conditions dominate in Russia for both scenarios. Cold stress of varying degrees is observed throughout most of the territory in winter, while conditions in summer are characterized by the absence of heat stress, including comfortable conditions. Using the k-means clustering method, bioclimatic zoning of Russia is conducted for 2000–2022 (based on meteorological network data) and 2040–2059 (based on data from three global climate models). Four quasi-homogeneous regions are identified in Russia based on the duration of favorable and unfavorable bioclimatic conditions. It is found that, in the future climate, a significant reduction in the area with the worst bioclimatic conditions is expected, along with an expansion of the “warmest” region, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Vinogradova, V.V., Titkova, T.B. Bioclimatic Zoning of Russia Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Present and Future Climates. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 61 (Suppl 1), S1–S9 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433825700963